All this adds up to a resounding "Don't be a fool!" -- exactly what my colleagues will consider me if I go ahead and present this damn thing without backing up my assertions.
Had I come into possession of the document a year ago, I might have been able to rearrange existing evidence or unearth new material (I think I know where to look). Now, of course, there is no time.
All my experience with the Conference, in addition to my native caution, tells me to wait. To present now could easily ruin my career.